Alternative renewable energy scenarios for New York

This case study compares the cost of maintaining a proposed subsidy for New York’s three upstate nuclear power plants (Fitzpatrick, Nine Mile Point Unit 1, and Ginna) with the cost of replacing the plants with renewable technologies over the time period from 2016 to 2050. Three alternative renewable scenarios are compared with two nuclear scenarios in terms of overall system costs, which comprise all capital and operating expenditures (CAPEX, OPEX) as well as Zero Emission Credit (ZEC) subsidies for nuclear power plants. The results show that the two nuclear scenarios (Scenario 1, keeping nuclear operating with subsidy until 2050 and Scenario 2, keeping nuclear operating with subsidy until 2028, then replacing it with wind and solar) are the most expensive scenarios, resulting in overall system costs of $32.4 billion and $31.0 billion, respectively, in $2014. The least expensive option, on the other hand, is to shut down the nuclear plants today and replace them with onshore wind capacities, saving $7.9 billion compared with Scenario 1. Substituting nuclear with a combination of wind and utility-scale photovoltaics (Scenario 5) would save $6.6 billion compared with Scenario 1. A mix of wind, utility-scale and rooftop Photovoltaics save $0.8 billion (Scenario 4). If we assumes a lower average capacity factor of nuclear generation from 2016 to 2050 (0.85 instead of 0.91) due to higher maintenance requirements over time and compensate the lower power generation with a mix of wind and PV, the system costs are slightly more expensive than in Scenario 1. The four renewable scenarios lead to 20.1 to 27.4 Mt CO2 greater emission reductions between 2016 and 2050 than with the two nuclear scenarios. In addition, re-investing the cost savings of the renewable scenarios into additional wind capacities increase CO2 savings up to 32.5 Mt. In sum, in all cases examined, subsidizing the three upstate nuclear reactors to stay open increases both CO2 and costs relative to the renewable scenarios. 1 CAPEX include the annuities over an economic lifetime of 20 years of the capacity specific overnight investment costs. OPEX on the other hand comprise fuel costs as well as fixed and variable operation and maintenance costs. 2 Although nuclear power emits lower CO2, than fossil fuels during operation during the mining and refining of uranium, ZEC include social costs of carbon due to their externalities. 3 All costs are given in US $ 2014.